Think of the 1996 Iowa Republican Caucuses as a movie. There’s a lengthy cast of characters. A lot of potential leading men. Conflict and intrigue. Probably not much sex or violence, Bob Dole will be glad to hear. Like your standard war flick, there are uniforms -- albeit dark suits with starched white shirts, bold ties, and tasseled loafers that seem to be worn by friend & foe alike; There are pollsters, media consultants, direct mail artists, fundraisers, PACs, strategists and candidate handlers. But although the Caucuses will not take place until February of next year-- and we’re barely beyond the opening credits -- recent polling data show that this is a movie grinding toward a predictable conclusion. Everybody knows whodunit -- or at least who’s gonna do it.

Independent polling can lead to no other conclusion. PSI’s “The Iowa Project - 1996” has just completed the third of six planned statewide surveys of registered Republican voters who expressed an intention to attend next years party caucuses. The results are consistent with the findings of the two earlier surveys, released in February and April. The message of all three is loud and clear: Senate Majority leader Bob Dole has a commanding lead over all of his Republican presidential rivals. In fact, so great is Dole’s lead that his victory in Iowa -- barring a major defining event (read health) -- is a virtual lock.

Of the 300 likely Iowa Caucus attendees contacted for the June poll, 51.7 percent opted for the senator from the neighboring state of Kansas. This is up from his 50.6 percent showing in April and 36 percent share in February. A distant second to Dole is Texas senator Phil Gramm, with 11.7 percent of the vote. The rest of the Republican hopefuls are virtually off the screen. Pat Buchanan and undeclared, undefined Colin Powell each have 5 percent. And in the low single digits are all the remaining candidates: Arlen Specter, Lamar Alexander, Alan Keyes, Richard Lugar, Tommy Thompson, Robert Dornan, and Pete Wilson. House Speaker Newt Gingrich was not included in the June survey. He was tested in the February survey and received 2 percent of the vote. Gingrich had a total name recognition of 90 percent, and 39.7 percent of those polled gave him a favorable rating, 27 percent unfavorable (a positive - negative ratio of 1.47:1).

Most movies -- be they horror, science-fiction, action or war films -- have one essential ingredient: Drama. That element is all but gone in Iowa. This is a mystery movie with no mystery, a “Die Hard” without Bruce Willis. Bob Dole’s closest challenger, Phil Gramm, is so far behind that there is virtually no hope of an upset. Even if Gramm were to win all of the undecided voters -- some 18.7 percent in PSI’s June poll -- the senior senator from Texas would still fall far short of knocking Dole off. What’s more, when asked which candidate they would vote for as a second choice, a large percentage of Gramm’s first vote supporters went for Dole. A significant percentage of Dole’s supporters showed no such reciprocity, however; their second-choice candidate was more likely to be “undecided.”

According to those polled, there are many reasons for this loyalty to Bob Dole. His age and experience are seen as an advantage, as are his strong midwest roots, his military service, and his extensive political work in the state over the years. Moreover he is seen as a defender of farm programs.

Despite the predictability of the race, there remain a number of intriguing questions: How valuable will Doles victory be? Is the huge media bump still out there to be had? Is being re-elected the president of Iowa really the kiss of death? And where in all this is the Christian Coalition, which propelled Pat Robertson into second place ahead of then Vice President Bush in the 1988 caucuses? Is it sitting this one out? If Iowa is the first screening, what are the Coalition’s plans for a sequel in the primaries that follow?

But for Phil Gramm, there may be a fate like the one suffered by his fellow imported Texan in “Davy Crockett at the Alamo.” For Gramm, it’s a case of “A Bridge Too Far”; for the rest of the Republican candidates, it’s “Mission Impossible.” Like the civil war film “Gettysburg” or the World War ll flick, “The Battle of the Bulge,” the outcome of this movie is not in question. We know who wins. It has about as much drama as a basketball game between Norway and the “Dream Team” at the Barcelona Olympics--as much uncertainty as the result of Desert Storm.

Eight months out from the final scene of the movie -- the February 1996 Caucus vote -- eyes are already looking northeast to New Hampshire and to Super Tuesday in the South. The results are in. The political mercenaries are moving on. The audience has already started to leave the theater.

PSI is an independent survey research firm located in Alexandria, Virginia, that conducts political and corporate research. It is owned and operated by Craig Tufty, a former resident of Sioux City, Iowa. “The Iowa Project - 1996" is not paid for nor affiliated with any of the presidential candidates, campaigns or their representatives.

Table of Contents
Mission Statement
February 2, 1995 Press Release
April 4, 1995 Press Release
June 6, 1995 Press Release
August 24, 1995 Press Release
November 14, 1995 Press Release
January 25, 1996 Press Release

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